Title: NFL Teams Vary in Play Counts, Impacting Fantasy Football Value
In a surprising trend this season, only 16 out of 32 NFL teams have averaged between 58-68 plays per game through the first two weeks of the 2023 season. This is a significant drop compared to 2022, where 30 out of 32 teams fell within this play count range. These figures have sparked interest among fantasy football enthusiasts as play counts can profoundly influence the value of players in the fantasy realm.
The Los Angeles Rams, Cleveland Browns, and Houston Texans stand out as the most active teams in terms of play counts, running more than 75 plays per game. On the other end of the spectrum, the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders have been operating below 50 plays per game. The discrepancy in play counts has led to crucial variations in the target share for fantasy players. For instance, a 20% target share on the Rams or Texans holds more significance than a 30% share on the Raiders or Jets.
Taking advantage of the high pass volume in Minnesota, Justin Jefferson has emerged as a top contender for the WR1 spot. With the team’s mediocre defense and a lackluster run game, the Vikings have resorted to a more pass-heavy strategy. However, a potential decrease in their lead margins compared to last year may influence Jefferson’s overall value.
The tight end position has also seen notable contenders this season. T.J. Hockenson has the potential to rank among the top three tight ends based on his performance. Meanwhile, Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn have emerged as viable fantasy options. As of now, Osborn enjoys a higher target share and more playing time than Addison.
Some key statistics to consider include Kadarius Toney’s limited route count of only 19, George Pickens’ decreased average depth of target (aDOT) to 10.2, and Nico Collins receiving targets on 26% of his routes. Additionally, Michael Pittman leads the NFL with an impressive 38.7% target share, Tutu Atwell has run the highest number of routes at 94, Mike Evans has averaged 3.76 yards per route run, and DeVonta Smith has performed consistently, averaging nearly 17 fantasy points per game in his last 17 appearances.
As for upcoming matchups, keep an eye on Mike Williams facing the Vikings, Garrett Wilson against the Patriots, Marquise Brown challenging the Cowboys, and George Pickens against the Raiders. These battles can potentially sway fantasy performances.
For those seeking waiver wire targets, consider adding Josh Reynolds, Nathaniel Dell, and Adam Thielen to boost your lineup. Additionally, Quentin Johnston is a player worth keeping an eye on as a potential stash option.
As we delve into the realm of DFS plays, top picks include the reliable Justin Jefferson and Courtland Sutton, both offering excellent value for daily fantasy sports enthusiasts.
In conclusion, with the considerable variance in play counts among NFL teams, fantasy football players can experience significant fluctuations in their value. Paying close attention to matchups, waiver wire options, and potential stash players can make or break a successful fantasy season.
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